La victoria del no y el actual escenario político: análisis del plebiscito en Colombia

Por: Grupo Libertario Vía Libre (Colombia)

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En el plebiscito realizado el día de ayer, 2 de octubre, en el que se sometía a votación la aprobación del Acuerdo Final para la terminación del conflicto armado firmado entre el gobierno de Juan Manuel Santos y la insurgencia de las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP)[1], ha ganado de forma inesperada y por escaso margen la opción del NO, lo que sin duda constituye un gran terremoto político.

Según el boletín 53 de la Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil, con el 99,98% de las mesas escrutadas, se imponía por el estrecho margen de 0.45% y 53.894 votos, la opción del “no” con 50.21% y 6´431.376 votos, frente a la opción del “sí” que contaba con 49.78% con 6´377.482 votos. Según esta misma fuente, en esta misma votación se registraron 86.243 votos no marcados y 170.946 votos nulos, en un pobre marco de participación de 13´064.973 sobre un censo de 34´899.945, el 37.43% del total[2]

Frente a este panorama, desde el Grupo Libertario Vía Libre proponemos, en consonancia con nuestra postura colectiva de apoyo crítico al proceso de paz[3], algunos elementos que podrían ayudar en el análisis del actual momento político, tanto sobre las causas de lo sucedido, como sobre los posibles escenarios por venir:

La derrota del SÍ

En primer lugar, es claro que este resultado constituye una importante derrota política de la heterogénea alianza social que respaldo la opción por el Sí. El desgastado y debilitado segundo gobierno de Juan Manuel Santos, con una imagen favorable baja cercana al 30% en algunas encuestas[4], con bases políticas endebles e incapaz de gestionar sin ajuste económico la desaceleración de la economía nacional, no tuvo la fuerza política de convocar al mismo número de electores que ratificaron su triunfo en la segunda vuelta electoral de las elecciones presidenciales de 2014, cuando una alianza pragmática a su favor consiguió su reelección con 7´836. 887 votos, lo que representa 1´459.405 votos menos de los obtenido por el SÍ en el plebiscito[5].

Aunque ciertos factores circunstanciales tuvieron incidencia en el resultado, como la rapidez con la que fueron convocadas las elecciones que contaron con un solo mes de campaña -un cuarto del tiempo habitual- y que no permitieron la inscripción de nuevas cédulas, y los efectos climáticos del huracán Matthew en la Región Caribe, estos no fueron decisivos. Si lo fue en cambio, el que los gamonales políticos que representan las élites políticas locales alineadas con el gobierno central en regiones empobrecidas como la Costa Atlántica, donde hasta hoy el paramilitarismo es fuerte, no hayan desplegado su gran fuerza clientelar como si lo habían hecho en la pasada elección presidencial, con el fin de marcar una posición de fuerza al interior de la coalición de gobierno y reacomodar sus proyecciones en miras a la disputa las elecciones presidenciales de 2018[6].

Por otra parte, la izquierda política institucional, debilitada por las divisiones de las fuerzas parlamentarias del Polo Democrático y la Alianza Verde, la tibieza desplegada por el sector liderado por el senador Jorge Enrique Robledo y el MOIR en esta campaña política, la creciente integración del sector socialdemócrata de Clara López, nueva ministra de trabajo, al nuevo gabinete de un gobierno impopular y la erosión del proyecto progresista de Gustavo Petro -tras el fin del periodo de 12 años de gobiernos de centro izquierda en Bogotá-, no logró articular un polo coherente en la opción por el SÍ, que fuera capaz de disputar masivamente los significados de la posición de esta ala de la izquierda frente a las sostenidas por la coalición del gobierno Santos.

Así mismo, es importante subrayar que los movimientos sociales de tipo sindical, campesino, vecinal, estudiantil, étnico, ambiental, de géneros y de derechos humanos se la jugaron de forma absolutamente mayoritaria por el Sí, haciendo de la defensa de este proceso un eje esencial de su accionar en el último ciclo político y en muchos casos entrando de lleno en la agitación por una respuesta favorable en el plebiscito. En general, podríamos apuntar que todas estas fuerzas sobrevaloraron su incidencia electoral y no lograron generar una movilización popular lo suficientemente amplia en apoyo a la paz entre las mayorías no organizadas de la población. Es claro que la reorientación de la estrategia de muchos movimientos sociales y plataformas políticas hacia la movilización casi exclusiva en torno a los diálogos en La Habana y la construcción de paz fue en últimas desacertada pues al dejar las luchas reivindicativas en segundo plano alejaron la posibilidad de reunir a grandes capas sociales que hoy sienten profundos malestares frente a las políticas de gobierno, además de crear prácticamente una bifurcación entre la construcción de paz y las luchas por el buenvivir y de crítica al modelo actual.

La victoria del NO

En segundo término, también se hace evidente que la opción contraria al acuerdo es la gran ganadora de la jornada. La campaña por el NO liderada por una más cohesionada alianza política estructurada alrededor del Centro Democrático, supo capitalizar una parte del descontento social con el debilitado gobierno Santos. Por un lado, impulsó campañas sectoriales entre gremios tradicionalmente conservadores como los camioneros, sectores sociales muy fragmentados como los vendedores ambulantes o los campesinos medios y aún sectores sociales de tradición sindical pero descontentos de sus organizaciones como el Magisterio. Por otro lado, supo empalmar con una ola de tradicionalismo conservador impulsado por sectores religiosos que cuestionaban algunas tímidas, tardías e inconsistentes políticas de respeto a la diversidad sexual por parte del gobierno Santos, especialmente en las movilizaciones homofóbicas desatadas por los proyectos de reforma a los manuales de convivencia de los colegios impulsados por el Ministerio de Educación.

Es importante añadir que las características mismas de la larga guerra insurgente vivida en el país, en la que en ciertas regiones y ciertos periodos de tiempo se presentó una guerra civil de baja intensidad, con un alto componente de degradación y victimización de la población civil, llevaron a que el bloque hegemónico que luego se fragmentaria entre santistas y uribistas, fuera capaz de liderar un grupo amplio de la población que se identifica por un profundo odio a las FARC, empalmando los tradicionales valores anti-socialistas de los sectores burgueses y terratenientes con el hondo conservadurismo de algunos sectores populares.

Así mismo, es importante destacar que el uribismo hizo una demostración de la capacidad política de la que goza al lograr construir un sentido común mayoritario que remplazo la dicotomía “paz y guerra” por la de “entreguismo o renegociación”. En últimas, el voto al NO fue un mensaje directo al gobierno de turno y a favor de las tradicionales fuerzas del país (ganaderos, curas, terratenientes), más que un rechazo contundente a la salida negociada al conflicto armado.

La enorme abstención

La abstención electoral del 62.57%, el porcentaje más elevado en 22 años, superó la media tradicional del país, que desde mediados del periodo del Frente Nacional es muy alta, y aun habiendo tendido a disminuir ligeramente en el último decenio, seguía rondando el 50% del censo electoral. Este se mantiene como uno de los porcentajes de abstención más altos en el continente y muestra que la mitad de la población, tanto de zonas urbanas como rurales, no participan del sistema político que juzgan correctamente como lejano, corrupto y ajeno a sus intereses materiales.

Más allá de esta tendencia histórica, los resultados actuales reflejan la debilidad de los mecanismos de participación política directa establecidos en la constitución de 1991, que salvo excepciones en contextos donde los movimientos sociales tienen fuerte poder local, no han conseguido ninguna aplicación en un régimen que mantiene la exclusión política. Lo anterior nos lleva a afirmar que, pese a los ingentes esfuerzos de difusión, gran parte de la población es incrédula frente los acuerdos alcanzados, dicha incredulidad responde tanto a la incapacidad de los actores favorables al proceso para interpelar al grueso de la población como a la capacidad que tuvo el uribismo de asociar los acuerdos con las cuestionables políticas de gobierno en un momento crecientemente desfavorable. Las críticas que han caído sobre la política tributaria y la forma en que el uribismo mediáticamente lo aprovechó parece el ejemplo más claro.

Polarización y fragmentación territorial

Pese a que gran parte de las fuerzas políticas bregaron porque las campañas no se convirtieran en una disputa bipartidista, el escrutinio demostró que aun la política nacional la sigue marcando la derecha tradicional representada en sus dos grandes polos. Por un lado, el Centro Democrático ha sabido movilizar su base electoral como lo demuestran el hecho de que los departamentos que mayores votos dieron al NO fuesen aquellos que catapultaron la campaña de Zuluaga en las últimas elecciones presidenciales: Casanare, Antioquia, Meta, Huila, Quindío, Risaralda y Caldas.

En contraste, la Unidad Nacional vive una fragmentación en su base social e incluso entre las fuerzas de su coalición, como lo demuestra el actuar de partidos como Cambio Radical del vicepresidente Vargas Lleras que prepara su candidatura para las elecciones presidenciales de 2018.

La influencia del contexto internacional

En la actualidad mundial también registramos una serie de tendencias que influyen en la coyuntura política colombiana. Por una parte, en medio de las nuevas oleadas de atentados terroristas contra blancos civiles, liderados principalmente por fundamentalistas islámicos de diferentes regiones del mundo, tienden a reforzar -en una agenda mundial autoritaria y securitaria- el imaginario que asocia a las FARC con el terrorismo, haciendo más oscura la diferenciación entre los actos de rebelión armada y los actos de terrorismo para una población más atemorizada.

Por otra parte, resulta importante la repercusión del giro conservador y el llamado fin del ciclo de los gobiernos progresistas en América Latina, expresado en fenómenos como el reciente golpe parlamentario contra Dilma Rousseff en Brasil, la derrota política sufrida por el referendo de Evo Morales en Bolivia, las victorias electorales en el parlamento de la Mesa de Unidad Democrática en Venezuela, o en la presidencia de Mauricio Macri en Argentina y Pedro Pablo Kuczynski en Perú. Este giro asume una forma particularmente aguda en Colombia, donde la reciente crisis fronteriza con Venezuela y la dura crisis económica que se le presenta al gobierno de Nicolás Maduro son explotadas permanentemente por la derecha colombiana activamente involucrada con la oposición burguesa del país vecino y que ha fantaseado en más de una oportunidad con una guerra abierta contra el chavismo. Con la invocación al fantasma del “castro chavismo” encarnado por las FARC, el uribismo supo utilizar para sí el sólido rechazo político previa y esmeradamente construido por el establecimiento colombiano de todos los colores, frente a lo que suponían una de sus mayores amenazas políticas.

Finalmente, es claro que esta segunda fase de la crisis económica mundial iniciada en 2008, que ha llevado al crecimiento lento en Estados Unidos, el estancamiento europeo, la recesión en Japón y la desaceleración de la economía China, con la consiguiente caída del precio internacional de las materias primas en general y de los productos minero-energéticos en particular, ha afectado fuertemente una economía dependiente como la colombiana, que viene experimentando desde hace dos décadas procesos de re-primarización y liberalización económica, que dejan una economía frágil, relentecida y sin signos de mejora inmediata, lo que ha llevado al gobierno nacional a implementar políticas de ajuste que afectan principalmente al pueblo trabajador colombiano. Así anuncios como el incremento de impuestos, han venido siendo bien utilizados por los opositores de los diálogos con las FARC, argumentando que será la sociedad en su conjunto la que asumirá los gastos económicos del pos-acuerdo, creando un sinfín de mitos y falsas relaciones entre factores que en un panorama adverso aumenta las confusiones en el seno de la población.

Escenarios futuros

Debilitado por una nueva derrota política, pero aún en el poder por el apoyo de un sector del bloque dominante y sin perspectivas inmediatas de renuncia, es claro que el gobierno Santos tiene la capacidad legal de darle continuidad al actual proceso de paz. La pregunta es ¿cómo?: ¿renegociando y buscando un acuerdo que no implique refrendación?, ¿haciendo uso de otro mecanismo de consulta?, ¿una Asamblea Constituyente, como sugieren algunos?  Todas son posibles respuestas que habrá que valorar a la luz de la correlación de fuerzas existente a nivel nacional.

Al parecer el sector uribista disidente, liderado por el ex candidato para la Alcaldía de Bogotá, Francisco Santos, alude a la necesidad de un pacto de reconciliación nacional para darle continuidad al acuerdo. En últimas, se sugiere concretar la vieja aspiración santista de superar la división interburguesa, para incluir al Centro Democrático, y en general a los promotores del NO, en un bloque político a favor del acuerdo, lo que por el momento no puede lograrse sin cuestionar supuestos fundamentales de lo pactado.

Por parte de los actores directos de la confrontación, encontramos que Santos en su alocución presidencial reafirmó su disposición porque el proceso siga en pie, manteniendo el cese al fuego. Por su parte, las FARC mostraron voluntad de continuar los diálogos reafirmando el cese al fuego bilateral y definitivo al que llegó con el gobierno hace unos meses. Sin embargo, ante la entrada de los sectores de la derecha más recalcitrante que hoy triunfa exigiendo la renegociación de los acuerdos, los términos para la culminación del conflicto entre la insurgencia más antigua de Latinoamérica y el Estado colombiano cambiarán notoriamente. Lo que hace mucho más complejo el actual panorama, ya que abre la posibilidad a que las FARC se vean obligadas a asumir otra estrategia, lo mismo de otros actores insurgentes como el ELN y el EPL.

Nuestra apuesta

La izquierda y el movimiento social parecen hundirse en desconcierto y en la evidente incapacidad de jalonar alternativas reales en el actual momento político. El reto estratégico sigue siendo reconfigurar el actual mapa político que pone en el centro de atención el enfrentamiento entre la derecha dura y la derecha blanda.

Como organización libertaria consideramos que tras la derrota del Sí, es necesario continuar disputando políticamente a favor de una salida negociada al conflicto armado entre el Estado y la insurgencia. Nuestra apuesta entonces consiste en que, ante el posible pacto nacional entre fracciones de la burguesía obligadas a reconciliarse, es necesario redoblar esfuerzos por concretar la unidad combativa de la clase trabajadora y las comunidades en lucha.

Creemos que hay que transformar los imaginarios colectivos que han sido impuestos desde la guerra contrainsurgente que criminalizan hoy las alternativas revolucionarias, así como dotar de gran fuerza a los movimientos populares que deberán ser los protagonistas en futuros escenarios de conflictividad política y social.

Reconocemos que existen importantes dificultades para tal propósito, pero también que es posible superar parte de esta herencia problemática a través de alianzas entre los sectores populares en lucha, de la apertura hacia otros sectores y organizaciones, y de innovación programática en las luchas. Seguimos creyendo urgente forjar la unidad de las de abajo para crear un movimiento popular con capacidades de transformación. Nos asumimos en la apuesta y el reto de construir un pueblo fuerte, con independencia de clase y organizado desde sus cimientos.

Aquí estamos y aquí seguimos con la fuerte convicción de que sólo la lucha y la organización autónoma, desde abajo y a la izquierda de las trabajadoras y los sectores populares será el único camino para construir alternativas para el buenvivir; para construir esos otros mundos posibles en miras hacia una sociedad más justa y más libre.

¡Arriba las que luchan!

Grupo Libertario Vía Libre
Bogotá, Colombia. Octubre 2016

_____________________________________________________

[1]Comisión negociadora Gobierno nacional-FARC EP. Acuerdo final para la terminación del conflicto y la construcción de una paz estable y duradera. EnMesadeconversaciones.com.co. 24/08/2016. Disponible en web. Link:https://www.mesadeconversaciones.com.co/sites/default/files/24_08_2016acuerdofinalfinalfinal-1472094587.pdf Consultado 02/10/2016

[2]Registraduria nacional del Estado Civil. Boletín Nacional No 43. Preconteo Plebiscito 2 de octubre de 2016, República de Colombia. Enplebiscitoregistraduria.gov.co. Disponible en web. Link:http://plebiscito.registraduria.gov.co/99PL/DPLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ_L1.htmConsultado 02/10/2016

[3] Ver por ejemplo. Vía Libre. Ante el acuerdo de cese al fuego bilateral y definitivo entre el gobierno colombiano y las FARC. 26 de junio de 2016. En Acción Libertaria. Disponible en web. Link:https://accionlibertariaoyl.wordpress.com/2016/06/26/via-libre-ante-el-acuerdo-de-cese-al-fuego-bilateral-y-definitivo-entre-el-gobierno-colombiano-y-las-farc-ep/Consultado 02/10/2016 o Julián Lopéz. El plebiscito, la izquierda y los sectores libertarios. En Acción Libertaria. Disponible en web. Link:https://accionlibertariaoyl.wordpress.com/2016/08/22/el-plebiscito-la-izquierda-y-los-sectores-libertarios/Consultado 02/10/2016

[4] Asociación Comunicación Política. Ranking de popularidad septiembre de 2016. En compolitica.com. Disponible en web. Link:http://compolitica.com/acop/tabla-de-popularidad/ Consultado 02/10/2016

[5]Wikipedia. Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia 2014. Disponible en web. Link:https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_presidenciales_de_Colombia_de_2014Consultado 02/10/2016

[6] El Tiempo. La del plebiscito fue la mayor abstención en 22 años. En Especial multimedia. Sección Política. Eltiempo.com. 2 de octubre de 2016. Disponible en web. Link: http://www.eltiempo.com/politica/proceso-de-paz/abstencion-en-el-plebiscito-por-la-paz/16716874 Consultado 02/10/2016

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