Luis Alberto Lozada
Investigador y activista venezolano
El pasado 6 de diciembre el chavismo recibió el más duro golpe en 17 años de gobierno, luego de haber salido airoso en 18 de 19 elecciones realizadas en el país. La única derrota previa había sido la consulta a una reforma constitucional en el año 2007, sin embargo, el impacto político de esta derrota no se compara con la pérdida de la Asamblea Nacional tanto por lo que significa en términos de correlación de fuerzas como por el contexto en el cual se produce la misma.
De manera concreta, los comicios legislativos dieron el 67% de los escaños (112 diputados) para la Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) –Coalición de partidos burgueses tradicionales y sus derivados: Primero Justicia, Acción Democrática, Un Nuevo Tiempo, Copei y Voluntad Popular–gracias al 58% de los votos y solo 33% de los escaños (55 diputados) para el PSUV obtenidos con el 42% de los votos.
La discrepancia proporcional entre votos y escaños obedece a la modificación de los circuitos electorales que se hizo en 2010 para favorecer a los candidatos del chavismo. En cada circuito electoral, de los 87 en total del país, se eligen una cantidad determinada de diputados según la densidad poblacional. En las pasadas parlamentarias del 2010 el gobierno alteró los circuitos dando un diputado más a aquellos donde era seguro que ganaba (amplia base chavista) o ampliando un circuito reñido con sectores geográficos leales al chavismo. En las recientes elecciones, esto significó un efecto boomerang.
Al no haber suficiente renta para aceitar la economía las variables macroeconómicas comienzan a desajustarse, veamos. El año 2014 el PIB cayó 4% y para el 2015 se prevé una caída aun mayor, –el Banco Central de Venezuela no publica cifras de crecimiento desde el tercer trimestre de 2014 ni de inflación desde diciembre de 2014– un déficit fiscal que ronda los dos dígitos del PIB y que se ha monetizado para compensar la caída de los ingresos petroleros causando un aumento gigantesco de la inflación: 53%, 65% y 200% (estimada) para 2013, 2014 y 2015 respectivamente, caída de las importaciones de 20% en 2103 y 29% en 2014%, y una caída de 18%, 33% y 53% en 2015 desde EEUU, Brasil y Colombia respectivamente, lo que ha generado niveles asombrosos de escasez y largas colas de horas e incluso días para abastecerse de productos, especialmente alimentos y artículos de higiene personal y una fuga de capitales superior a los 110 mil millones de dólares, entre otros. Todo esto ha generado el retorno a los niveles de pobreza de 1998 en torno al 48%.
La depauperación, los altos niveles de criminalidad, la inflación galopante que se come todos los días los salarios, y las extenuantes colas fueron (y son) la cara visible de la crisis y cuyas causas, tanto por el rol que ocupa el estado en el proceso de acumulación de capital en Venezuela como por la polarización política entre chavismo y oposición (MUD), factores que para la mayoría de los votantes fueron atribuidos al gobierno.
La MUD se trazó la estrategia de denunciar la responsabilidad del gobierno en la crisis como consecuencia de su política económica “controladora” y de “ataque” al sector privado. El gobierno por su parte se ideó -inspirado en las teorías conspirativas que sustentan buena parte de su ideología- que la crisis era por la guerra que hacen los empresarios “apátridas” al aumentar los precios de las mercancías al infinito con el propósito de desestabilizar la economía, todo planificado perfectamente desde el “imperio”. En ninguno de los dos casos aparece la crisis de acumulación de capital como esencia del problema, sino que ambas explicaciones naufragan en el reino de las apariencias y de lo absurdo. No obstante la MUD logró capitalizar el descontento de la población ante un personal político de gobierno muy desgastado.
Lo cierto es que los resultados inauguran un periodo de cese de hegemonía chavista y de oxigenación de las fuerzas políticas más ligadas a la Federación de Cámaras Empresariales de Venezuela (Fedecamaras). El PSUV a pesar de la derrota sigue siendo una fuerza importante, todavía con una amplia base social pero que puede reducirse drásticamente con la profundización de la crisis al quebrarse la relación clientelar que ha forjado a través del estado. La MUD ha logrado capitalizar el descontento de la mayoría de las masas ante la crisis, pero no necesariamente significa una adhesión a su programa sino como muchos han catalogado: los votos recibidos son un voto castigo al gobierno. Sin embargo dicho caudal político se ha ido construyendo paulatinamente en paralelo al desgaste del gobierno y al resurgimiento de la crisis.
El periodo que comienza
Para el 2016 vamos a presenciar muy probablemente la agudización de la crisis. Con los precios del petróleo cayendo la escasez seguirá a los niveles actuales, de igual manera seguirá la inflación, el déficit fiscal y la contracción económica. Urge entonces un ajuste estructural. La MUD va a presionar para que el gobierno lo aplique y corra con las consecuencias. Es decir, a la MUD no le interesa sacar a Maduro vía referendo revocatorio antes que este lleve a cabo las medidas, de lo contrario un eventual gobierno de la MUD en 2016 podría ser un autogol para ellos. El chavismo por su parte está entrampado; aunque ha venido aumentado tarifas y precios de algunos bienes, el grueso de las medidas de ajuste aún no se resuelve a tomarlas por el costo político que significaría una reducción fuerte del gasto público en las bases del gobierno por ejemplo; pero no hacer nada y dejar que la bola de nieve siga creciendo también puede terminar aplastándolos. Lo cierto es que ya el PSUV no es hegemónico y los dos bloques capitalistas en pugna trataran de endosarle la crisis al adversario.
Con una representación realmente marginal la izquierda[1] no juega –por ahora- un rol destacado en la dinámica política. Muchas organizaciones y movimientos auto-referenciados de izquierda fueron cooptados por el chavismo por su retórica antimperialista, o están a la cola del mismo al apoyarlo “críticamente”[2], pero de alguna manera legitimando desde la “izquierda” a un proyecto que se presentó como antimperialista e incluso socialista pero que en definitiva no le hizo sino cosquillas al capital y donde los grandes beneficiados han sido los empresarios de siempre y los nuevos ricos apodados acá como boliburgueses. La clase obrera si bien vio mejorar con creces sus condiciones de vida en la última década-sobre todo la atendida por medio de planes sociales (misiones)- en apenas 3 años también ha visto como se ha esfumado súbitamente dicha mejora al no estar ligada a una transformación productiva de dichas condiciones. La izquierda por tanto debe explicar las verdaderas causas de la crisis, el verdadero carácter del chavismo, tender puentes hacia los sectores de izquierda obnubilados aún por el rentismo y que gravitan en torno el PSUV y promover una lucha antiajuste en 2016 y, más importante aún, la construcción de un programa socialista. Para todo ello debe sustentar su acción en la ciencia, es decir, en la investigación científica que dé cuenta de las verdaderas determinaciones de la realidad y le permita realizar los mejores análisis en concreto, y no en las ideologías de diversos signos que aun la impregnan.
[1] Me refiero a la izquierda no chavista como el Partido Socialismo y Libertad (PSL) que fue a las elecciones pero no solo no sacó ningún diputado sino que obtuvo una votación muy inferior al 1%. Otras organizaciones de izquierda no chavista no se presentaron, pero no tienen objetivamente suficiente fuerza. Marea Socialista, que tiene un pie en el chavismo y otro afuera, no pudo ir con tarjeta propia a las elecciones por prohibición del Consejo Nacional Electoral y tuvo que a aliarse a otras tarjetas e incluso la del PSL en un estado; aun así sus resultados fueron igual de magros.
[2]Acá hay un espectro que abarca muchos partidos, organizaciones y movimientos que van desde el PCV hasta expresiones anarquistas, trotskistas, estalinistas y otras. Parte de estos forman parte de la alianza electoral con el gobierno denominado Gran Polo Patriótico. La gran mayoría no tiene expresión electoral pero milita dentro del chavismo.
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