Impacto del ciclo económico: ¿estamos frente a una crisis?

por V.N.

Recientemente han aparecido en todos los medios de comunicación el impacto de la “crisis” sobre el crecimiento económico, el equilibrio de las finanzas públicas por menor recaudación de lo proyectado, la supuesta falta de expectativas de los empresarios por los procesos de reforma, etc. De hecho, el argumento principal esgrimido por la Nueva Mayoría al anunciar que no llevaría adelante las reformas planteadas en su programa fue el contexto de “desaceleración económica”. Ahora, todos sabemos que los empresarios siempre alegan eso ¿Existe una desaceleración? ¿Estamos frente a una crisis? ¿Es verdad que no hay plata?

Efectivamente, se ha acabado la parte ascendente del ciclo económico que comenzó en el año 2003. En un país cuya forma de crecimiento es la exportación de bienes primarios, ese ciclo está determinado por los precios internacionales de las materias primas. Y por lo mismo, la actual crisis no es sino la parte descendente del ciclo: las múltiples consecuencias de la caída de las materias primas, y particularmente, de la caída del precio del cobre.

El que sea una consecuencia del modelo de crecimiento económico no significa que no deje de tener efectos para los trabajadores: caída del crecimiento, desplome de la inversión, salida de capitales. ¿Cuán profunda será la caída? Nadie lo sabe exactamente, depende del comportamiento del precio de las materias primas. El llamado “superciclo de las materias primas” fue un proceso que comenzó en el año 2003 y que sacó el precio de las materias primas de sus tendencias históricas. Las causas de ello son controvertidas, pero principalmente, se ha vinculado a dos cosas. Algunos le dan mayor importancia en el aumento de precios, al aumento de demanda internacional debido a la migración campo-ciudad en China. Quienes defienden esta postura sostienen que el proceso tiene sólidas raíces, será difícilmente modificable, por lo que será sustentable en el tiempo. Otros economistas han sostenido que existe una burbuja especulativa alrededor de dichos bienes primarios, sumado al uso como depósito para conseguir crédito en el sistema financiero chino. Lo cierto es que los precios están cayendo, nadie sabe a ciencia cierta cuanto caerán ni por cuanto tiempo. Y eso efectivamente afecta los niveles de crecimiento de la economía. Y al hacerlo, hay efecto sobre el consumo doméstico, sobre la construcción, el comercio, etc. Habrán menos trabajos.

Entonces uno podría decir que si todo se debe a variaciones internacionales no es culpa de nadie, nada se podía hacer. Y es verdad que no se controla el ciclo internacional y con ello de los precios de las materias primas. Pero cuánto este ciclo afecta a nuestra economía depende de su grado de apertura, de la concentración exportadora, de la dependencia fiscal sobre dichos ingresos, de la situación previa a la caída de la balanza comercial y de pagos. Y en todo ello, Chile está muy expuesto. No se puede escapar a los costos de un modelo de crecimiento económico de exportación primaria. Y el rasgo más característico, por el cuál fue cuestionado profundamente en América Latina durante buena parte del XX, es la exposición frente a las crisis económicas.

¿Entonces, es cierto que no hay, o que no habrá plata, y que por lo tanto lo sensato sería controlar las demandas sociales? Eso no es cierto. Plata hay, la pregunta acá es quién se la lleva a casa, quién la acumula, en qué la gasta. Chile es un país extremadamente injusto, en que un grupo muy reducido de familias, una facción de la burguesía, se lleva una parte enorme de la torta. Si uno observa con cuanto se queda el 10%, el 5% o el 1% más rico de la población, no hay datos de que en otros países ellos concentren una parte tan grande de los ingresos. Y esa desigualdad se mantuvo y creció durante la parte buena del ciclo ¿Porqué habríamos de ser prudentes ahora? Cuando la parte mala del ciclo a nosotros nos afecta como lo hace, no llegando a fin de mes, y a ellos los afecta como lo hace: entre los más obscenamente ricos, en un cambio porcentual en sumas monstruosas que tendrían que tener decenas de vida para gastar, en el resto del 5% más rico, restringiendo el consumo de bienes de lujo inaccesibles aún en los buenos días para la enorme mayoría de las y los trabajadores.

Otros argumentos que se escuchan es que hay que ser prudentes porque si no los empresarios se van a espantar más, con lo cuál invertirán menos, con lo que habrá más desempleo, y los sueldos bajarán. Es una amenaza; “ustedes no saben lo que hacen, quieren mejoras ahora en tiempos malos, si lo lograran, incautos, terminaría siendo peor para ustedes mismos.” Está claro que la inversión se reducirá con el ciclo. Menos claro es el efecto de las demandas sobre eso. El tema es que incluso los que se quedan con una parte obscenamente grande de la riqueza, invierten extremadamente poco. Consumen una parte en gastos de lujo, y el resto se utilizan en adquisiciones de otras empresas, concentración, no teniendo un impacto tan grande sobre la inversión.

Entonces el tema no es que no haya plata. El tema es cómo está repartida la plata. Y en qué la usan los que se quedan con la mayor parte de ella.

El fisco (o sea, las arcas del Estado) pasará por un período de menores ingresos por la caída en las entradas por CODELCO (ya que los ingresos por impuestos a la minería privada son tan bajos, que su variación tiene un menor efecto). Las entradas por IVA (que es la forma principal de recaudación) también están cayendo por la reducción de la actividad económica (se venden y compran menos cosas, por lo que se paga menos IVA). Eso tendrá impactos, sin duda. Impactos que en una economía tan pequeña no pueden ser contenidos por los ahorros en el exterior (fondos soberanos). Eso se podría solucionar, no cabe duda. Aumentando los impuestos a los más ricos, o incluso sólo sobre los obscenamente ricos. Aumentando los impuestos sobre la extracción de cobre (Chile tiene el nivel fiscal de presión sobre las rentas de los recursos naturales más bajo de los países de América Latina que exportan metales o energía). Ni que decir de nacionalizarlo. Pero nada de eso ocurrirá. Eso exigiría una voluntad que no existe en las fuerzas del parlamento, ni tampoco existirá en lo inmediato. Dicho de otra forma: el nivel de presión fiscal (con cuanto se queda el Estado de los ingresos) es muy bajo con respecto a países de similar ingresos de otras partes del mundo, o de los países ricos cuando tenían un ingreso similar al que tenemos ahora. Si eso no aumentó durante el período de bonanza, menos lo hará en este contexto, vista la estructura de fuerzas políticas actuales. En este contexto, la actuación del Estado puede agravar el asunto (si recorta el gasto social y las inversiones públicas, o sea, si tiene un comportamiento pro cíclico). Pero no es sensato esperar una mejora en las condiciones de vida de las y los trabajadores por la vía de una actuación fuerte del Estado en los próximos años de vacas flacas.

Desde donde puede venir un elemento interesante, que podría tener consecuencias es agudizar las demandas en las negociaciones entre las y los trabajadores con sus empleadores, tanto a nivel de empresa como en articulaciones de facto que permitan negociaciones por rama o por sectores. Esa es la dimensión en la cual hoy las y los trabajadores pueden incidir en su futuro próximo. No sabemos cuánto más caiga el precio del cobre, ni cuánto dure la contracción del ciclo. Pero sí sabemos que el que eso no se refleje en peores condiciones para las y los trabajadores, depende de nosotros y nosotras. No vendrá mágicamente de la economía internacional, no vendrá del patrón de inversión de la burguesía local, no vendrá tampoco de la expansión seria del gasto público que ni siquiera se atrevieron a hacer cuando hubo recursos por montones.

[Publicado en la edición N°30 de Solidaridad]

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