Difundimos: La jugada maestra de Putin contra el Estado Islámico

Por Carlos, miembro del Comité de Solidaridad Chileno-Mapuche con Kurdistán

El derribo del avión ruso Su-24 el pasado martes 24 de noviembre por F-16 turcos supone un hecho que puede ser el giro de tuerca necesario para emprender una alianza antiterrorista efectiva contra ISIS. Las agudas contradicciones ya existentes entre las partes involucradas pueden resolverse a favor de la resistencia de los pueblos en Siria si Rusia logra continuar lo que ya ha empezado: el aislamiento de ISIS de Turquía, su principal sostén.

Al iniciar la intervención en Siria, autorizada por el gobierno de Siria y bajo los principios del derecho internacional, Rusia se limitó a atacar las zonas defendidas por el ejército sirio. Hasta ese momento era muy difícil suponer el alcance real de la intervención rusa, planificada paciente y progresivamente para evitar un desastre. La principal causa de este posible desastre es la presencia de países de la OTAN (EE.UU. y Turquía) que desde el comienzo vieron la posibilidad de convertir a Siria en un nuevo Afganistán para los rusos, boicoteando sus iniciativas diplomáticas para luchar contra ISIS y demás bandas terroristas, entregando armamento antiaéreo a estos grupos y, principalmente, iniciando una dura guerra mediática contra la diplomacia moscovita. A) EE.UU. y la OTAN acusan a Rusia de atacar a la “oposición moderada” para sostener en el poder a Bashar al Assad. B) Rusia acusa a EE.UU. de no combatir eficientemente al ISIS, y además de permitir la existencia de otros grupos igual de terroristas. Las principales diferencias, al menos públicamente, se encuentran en el rol que cada bloque le asigna al presidente Bashar al Assad en el proceso de transición a la paz y qué entiende cada uno por oposición moderada.

¿Dónde está la oposición moderada?

El plan de entrenamiento de “rebeldes” en Turquía auspiciado por el Pentágono le hubiese permitido a EE.UU. un margen de acción tal que su actividad militar en Siria sólo dependería de sus propios intereses. El fracaso de este plan obligó a EE.UU. a tener que respaldarse en los grupos ya existentes (Ahrar al-Sham, Frente al-Nusra e ISIS), a quienes no puede apoyar públicamente por ser reconocidas organizaciones terroristas. El antiguo Ejército Libre de Siria prácticamente se desintegró, pasando la mayoría de sus combatientes a abrazar el yihadismo de ISIS o Al-Nusra. Para evitar el entuerto, EE.UU. habla de “oposición moderada”, oposición compuesta por organizaciones y líderes cuyos nombres nadie nombra.

Hasta el momento, lo único que podríamos considerar verdadera oposición moderada (aunque nadie se refiera a ellos cuando se utiliza ese concepto) es la resistencia kurda de las YPG/YPJ, quienes combaten a los grupos terroristas con una valentía y eficiencia internacionalmente reconocida. Sumando a árabes, cristianos y otras etnias, las YPG han fundado hace algunas semanas las Fuerzas Democráticas de Siria (FDS), coalición que plantea la democratización de Siria mediante una alianza popular y secular, es decir, una unión multiétnica y multirreligiosa entre todos los pueblos de Siria. El propio fracaso de la estrategia estadounidense para crear una “oposición moderada” validada internacionalmente los ha obligado a tener que apoyar públicamente a esta coalición. ¿Por qué EE.UU apoyaría al sector más progresista de todo el conflicto? Sencillamente porque necesita seguir dentro de la guerra para después jugar un papel de mediador y pedir su recompensa. No pueden apoyar públicamente a Al-Nusra ni a ISIS, pero lo siguen haciendo por debajo de la mesa. En cambio, si se visten con ropaje democrático apoyando a los kurdos, podrían seguir ejerciendo su rol interventor en Siria a la vez que guardan las apariencias. Aunque hasta el momento este apoyo sólo se ha expresado en el plano militar mediante el apoyo aéreo, el envío de armamento e instructores militares, es muy difícil que continúe más allá de la lucha contra ISIS. La estrategia de EE.UU y sus aliados de la OTAN es partir a Siria e Irak en Estados-nación sectarios (un Estado alahuita, uno chiíta, uno sunita y uno kurdo), mientras que la estrategia de las YPG/YPJ es la de construir un sistema confederal que una a los pueblos de Siria sin afectar las actuales fronteras estatales, basándose en la ideología del Confederalismo Democrático. Mientras militarmente puede haber coincidencias entre las FDS y EE.UU., en el plano estratégico las diferencias imposibilitan una mayor colaboración.

Turquía pone al descubierto su colaboración con el terrorismo

Atacar un avión que bombardea terroristas es algo indefendible. El mismísimo Putin fue tajante al decir que esta puñalada por la espalda había sido ejecutada por los “cómplices del terrorismo”. Una semana antes del derribo del Su-24, la aviación rusa informó de la destrucción de 500 camiones petroleros, con cientos de miles de toneladas de petróleo producido por ISIS en dirección a Irak para su refinamiento. El plan de intervención ruso activó una nueva fase: el bloqueo de las fuentes de suministros de las organizaciones terroristas, anticipado por las declaraciones de Putin en la reciente cumbre del G-20 en Turquía. Si consideramos las denuncias del Partido de la Unión Democrática (partido de los kurdos al norte de Siria), del gobierno sirio, de Rusia y de la propia oposición burguesa a Erdogan, es probable que ese petróleo robado luego de su refinamiento hubiese tenido como destino final a Turquía. Con esto, el agravio cometido por Turquía contra la aviación de Rusia no hace sino redoblar las sospechas sobre su apoyo directo a ISIS. En la telaraña siria cualquier movimiento de este tipo provoca un remezón, por lo que es imposible pensar que no haya sido una operación muy bien planificada. Pero ¿por quién?

Luego de la ampliación de las operaciones rusas que ahora también atacan los suministros financieros del Estado Islámico, Erdogan y su partido de la guerra deciden preparar una advertencia más directa contra Putin. Sería muy estúpido por parte del Estado turco buscar una confrontación directa con Rusia sin tener un respaldo: Turquía espera obtener el apoyo prometido por la OTAN para asegurar una intervención directa en Siria. El interés principal de Turquía ahora es mantener las vías abiertas de comunicación y logística con Siria a través de su frontera por la zona de Jarablus, controlada hoy por ISIS, ya que el resto de su frontera con Siria fue cerrada por las YPG que expulsaron a las bandas terroristas de casi todo el norte de Siria. Si esta suposición es cierta, pone a la OTAN en una posición compleja. No puede abandonar a su aliado más importante en la región, pero su margen de maniobra se reduce a un mínimo si se ponen a la orden de un Estado directa y públicamente implicado en el apoyo al terrorismo. No es que los otros Estados de la OTAN sean unas blancas palomas, pero parecía ser que la intervención rusa los empujaba hacia posiciones mucho más cautas que en meses anteriores. Por ejemplo, Francia acaba de acordar junto a Rusia la coordinación de sus bombardeos apoyándose en tierra de los kurdos, e incluso del Ejército Árabe Sirio, posibilidad casi impensable hace algunos meses cuando Francia no veía futuro para Siria con Al Assad en el gobierno.

El reciente salvavidas financiero que la Unión Europea le lanzó a Turquía para que deje de enviar refugiados a Europa puede ser una pieza importante del rompecabezas. Cuando estalla mediáticamente la crisis de los refugiados, Turquía aprovecha la conmoción para chantajear a Europa y decirles: necesitamos que nos ayuden financieramente, o no podremos evitar que los refugiados escapen de Turquía para viajar a sus países. Para los europeos podría significar un mayor peligro interno seguir recibiendo refugiados que apoyar públicamente a un gobierno que masacra a su pueblo e interviene descaradamente en países vecinos.  Esta ayuda podría ser el visto bueno que la OTAN le da a Turquía, el visto bueno para su plan de intervención.

En cualquier caso, es Turquía el país que más se encuentra expuesto y, por lo mismo, el país que pagará los costos de este enfrentamiento indirecto de la OTAN con Rusia. Además de denunciar públicamente al gobierno turco en su implicación con el terrorismo, Rusia ya implementó una serie de medidas para sancionar económicamente a Ankara. Estas medidas pueden provocar la reacción internacional necesaria para aislar a Turquía como sostenedor de ISIS, que significaría un paso fundamental en la lucha contra los terroristas y para acabar con el conflicto armado. Junto a otras medidas, es posible derrotar la estrategia del terrorismo en Siria.

1.- Rusia debe aprovechar esta coyuntura para juntar a todos los países que estén dispuestos a combatir al terrorismo tras de sí, quitándole aliados a las potencias que sostienen a los terroristas. La coalición con Francia es el primer paso para lograrlo. Hay muchos países, como hemos de suponer que el propio gobierno francés está pensando, que ven en el “combate al terrorismo” una posibilidad mucho más cierta de quedarse con un pedazo de la torta siria que apoyando a “la oposición moderada contra Al Assad”. A diferencia de la coalición de EE.UU. Rusia no busca balcanizar a Siria, por lo que juega un rol progresista en el conflicto.

2.- Las YPG/YPJ no han podido cerrar completamente la frontera turco-siria debido a los ataques que reciben por parte de las Fuerzas Armadas de Turquía, que a través de la frontera defienden junto a los terroristas la zona de Jarablus. Si EE.UU. o Rusia colaboran desde el aire con la resistencia kurda para que tomen esta zona, cortarían toda la vía de comunicaciones y suministros entre ISIS y Turquía. Rusia cuenta con un margen amplio de maniobra para apoyarse en terreno de los kurdos para tomar Jarablus y defender Alepo de las ofensivas terroristas.

Lograr estos objetivos debilitaría sustancialmente a los grupos terroristas, a la vez que fortalecerá a todos quienes lo resisten dentro de Siria. ¿Cómo responderá Turquía al emplazamiento ruso? ¿Saldrá EE.UU. en defensa de su aliado o colaborarán en su aislamiento? ¿Será posible una verdadera alianza antiterrorista que acabe con ISIS? Son las preguntas que están por ser respondidas durante los próximos días.

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